It seems 2024 will be the year of ‘peak petrol’ when it comes to how UK cars are powered, more than 160 delegates heard at the annual seminar of the Vehicle Remarketing Association.
Louis Maxwell, senior insight manager at Auto Trader, told the audience at The Slate, Warwick University, that growth in sales of electric vehicles (EVs) meant that volumes of petrol cars would soon start to fall.
He said, “We’re living in the year of peak petrol. The numbers of petrol cars have stayed stable for the last decade or longer but the speed of electrification means that within five years, there will be two million fewer on our roads.
“We have already seen how diesel is starting to disappear from the new car market and, although the story of petrol will be slower and less dramatic, the rise of the EV means something similar will happen over time.
“Already, we are starting to see EVs become accessible to more buyers. In the used market, we’re seeing prices fall dramatically and now around one third of total EV stock are priced under £30,000, making them more affordable and bringing the sale turnaround time among 3-5 year old cars down to a very rapid 19 days. As the available stock ages and falls in price, EVs will become viable for more buyers.”
Each year, the VRA seminar provides a comprehensive briefing for remarketing professionals about trends affecting the sector in the year ahead.
Andy Webb, head of sales, Brego, added that despite “peak petrol”, values of internal combustion engine cars had stayed consistent in recent years and looked set to remain stable at least into the medium term. There was even the possibility that they could rise as supply began to fall away.
He went on, “We can see that values of petrol and diesel vehicles have stayed remarkably consistent in recent years. If the current ZEV Mandate production targets stay in place, we might move into a situation where there is a shortage of petrol and diesel vehicles, potentially pushing up values, but we appear to be some distance away from than happening.”
However, Dionne Hanlon, senior editor for commercial vehicles, cap hpi, reported that the van market continued to be resistant to electrification with “diesel remaining king” and there was little sign of that situation changing.
