Campaign group FairFuelUK warned that UK diesel prices will sharply rise as global refining capacity falls short of demand.
Despite crude oil stabilising, diesel remains around 190p/litre, driven by record‑high refining margins and a tightening global supply chain.
With UK reserve cover at just 23–26 days, any further disruption — from Russian refinery outages to Persian Gulf shipping instability — will push pump prices even higher.
Diesel is rising because refineries cannot produce enough — not because crude is expensive.
Why refining is the problem:
Russian refining capacity down ~30% due to strikes
Russian diesel exports curtailed
Persian Gulf refinery throughput down ~30% due to Hormuz disruption
Europe already had a long‑term diesel deficit
Global refining margins at four‑year highs (IEA)
The result is diesel prices will rise even if crude stays stable. Likely UK pump price range if the refining crunch worsens, UK diesel could move into the 195–205p/litre range.
FairFuelUK founder Howard Cox said, “Diesel is the commercial heartbeat of any economy. Brent hitting $100 is bad enough, but the real danger now is the diesel refining crunch.
“Diesel prices aren’t rising because oil is expensive — they’re rising because the world can’t refine enough of it. That’s a structural crisis, and it means UK pump prices are about to surge sharply. We’re already near 190p a litre, and without urgent action, diesel could smash through £2 a litre, hammering motorists, hauliers, small businesses and the entire economy.
“More than 40 countries have stepped in to protect drivers and keep inflation down. The UK must do the same — or we’ll sleepwalk into another cost‑of‑living shock.”
More than 40 countries have already intervened with fuel tax cuts, subsidies or price caps since the Iran Crisis started. The UK has not. WHY?
FairFuelUK is calling for:
- A freeze on Fuel Duty for the lifetime of this Parliament
- A targeted diesel duty reduction
- Immediate implementation of PumpWatch
- A freight resilience plan to protect supply chains
