Driving tests are heading for a crash with demand far exceeding available examination slots.
New research shows demand for practical driving test slots across the UK far exceeds the DVSA’s ability for testing, despite the new measures it’s put in place.
The data gathered through Freedom of Information (FOI) requests and existing Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures by learner driver insurance brokers, Marmalade found that monthly demand for tests in 2024 exceeds the monthly capacity for testing by almost a third (30%).
Marmalade found that on average, the UK can conduct 144,429 tests per month by looking at the most recent data between September 2022 and September 2023. The testing capacity rises to 169,429 between January and March 2024, due to a release of 150,000 test slots back in October 2023.
However, new FOI data reveals an average monthly gross demand of 195,982 learners looking for a test slot, based on demand during 2023.
A further FOI to the DVSA confirmed 537,722 tests already booked for 2024, as of January this year.
Based on all of this data, Marmalade estimates more than five million learners will compete for test slots over the next year, 177% more than what can be accommodated.
The end of January 2024 kicked off a driving test rollover, where capacity for testing started to struggle against gross demand. From here, the backlog compounds every month as demand quickly escapes the capacity to tackle the waiting times.
Marmalade predicts the backlog will remain indefinitely with no signs of stopping, continuing to grow until capacity increases within the testing system.
Commenting on the research, Chris Lawson, Head of Insurer Relations for car insurance at Marmalade, said, “Learner drivers up and down the UK are being impacted by this backlog and a fundamental disparity between the capacity for testing and this high demand. Until testing capacity can increase, we don’t believe that the backlog will ever end, it will only get worse and learners will continue to face a lottery when it comes to securing a test.
“This backlog and the pent-up demand opens up learners to a risk of exploitation as third parties take advantage of that desperation, which we’ve seen in recent months.”
Marmalade’s recent survey of learner drivers across the UK found that 77% of learners cite the extra cost of more lessons as the biggest frustration in the delay for tests, followed by delaying independence and freedom (68%) among others.
Mark Steeples, driving instructor from Pass Mark School of Driving said he doesn’t see a situation arising where the situation returns to pre-COVID testing levels, explaining, “The driving test backlog has a knock-on impact on those wanting to learn, I’m flooded with enquiries as people currently have an insatiable desire to learn how to drive and they’ll do it by hook or crook.
“My advice to learners is if you’ve done your theory, get your test booked now, but only take it if you’re confident and ready to pass based on the advice of your instructor and be prepared to reschedule it if you’re not fully ready.
“If you know you’re going to start your driving lessons soon, then get them booked in. I’d advise learners to book in with an instructor to start learning how to drive at least 9 months to 1 year before, not two weeks before as we often see, that just isn’t going to work.”
In an email from the DVSA, chief executive of the agency, Loveday Ryder said, “We are taking all the measures we can to reduce driving test waiting times. The work we’ve been doing to date, along with our examiner recruitment, is already creating over 40,000 extra tests every month. We strongly urge learners only to book their driving test when they are ready to pass.”