Britain is on the verge of a new boom in car sales, according to leading automotive economist Prof Garel Rhys.
Early last year he dismissed gloomy predictions for the new car 2014 UK market from the SMMT and international accountants and predicted they would rise above the 2007 total of 2.4M.
As the year progressed the SMMT and others gradually altered their opinions and raised hopes of an improvement.
He has been proved correct with this week’s announcement of total UK registrations last year hitting a decade high of 2,476,435 as sales rose 9.3% over the 12 months.
“Between 2001 and 2007, UK sales were consistently above 2.4 Million cars so there is plenty of flexibility in Britain to take more sales,” said the Professor.
“The 2014 income growth and the consequent car market will set the tone up to 2020. There will be a period of strong income growth whilst the period of very large expenditure cuts with its negative impact on expenditure will end.
In addition, the large growth in the UK population is unique in Western Europe. Between 2008 and 2018 this is going to increase from 63 Million to 66.7 Million. This will create more potential car buyers.
“This could increase the UK car parc by 2025-28 over and above what it would have been. Initially, the population growth will have a significant positive effect on used car sales.
So the car market of over 2.4 Million indicated by the SMMT and regarded as likely, will reach 2.6 to 2.65 Million in about 2017-19. This strong demand will percolate down to the used markets and will prevent any price crash even if some easing occurs.”
Commercial vehicle market grows 11.0% to 363,155 units in 2014, the highest level since 2007.Van market leads growth, up 18.7% to 321,686 registrations for the year.
Truck registrations fell 26.2% throughout the year due to changing legislation.
In the bus and coach sector, sales dipped 4.6% to 7,352 units in 2014 but were down by over 26% in December.
New car registrations last year were the highest in a decade.
SMMT figures show 2,476,435 registrations, the highest since 2004, which was itself a record.
UK sales went up 9.3% and it is the second largest market in the EU after Germany but ahead of France, Italy and Spain and each month witnessed consecutive growth throughout 2014.
Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said, “UK new car registrations returned to pre-recession levels in 2014, as pent-up demand from the recession years combined with confidence in the economy saw consumer demand for the latest models grow consistently and strongly.
“The year was particularly strong for alternatively-fuelled vehicles as increased choice, coupled with a growing desire for reduced costs and greater efficiency, resulted in a quadrupling of plug-in car registrations over 2013. With a variety of new plug-in models expected in 2015, this area of the market will continue to grow significantly. For the market as a whole, we expect a more stable 2015 as demand levels off.”
Britains best selling cars of the year were: Fiesta, Focus, Corsa, Golf, Astra, Qashqai, Polo, A3, Fiat 500 and Juke. In Wales, sales went up 8.72% last year to 90,928 new cars.
The top ten sold in Wales last year were:
- Ford Fiesta 8293
- Ford Focus 3656
- Vauxhall Corsa 2841
- Vauxhall Astra 1939
- Ford Kuga 1862
- VW Golf 1827
- VW Polo 1652
- Fiat 500 1628
- Nissan Qashqai 1510
- Vauxuhall Mokka 1430