There is a growing problem for car makers attempting to work to the new WLTP emissions test as the September deadline looms, says JATO.
The international business intelligence service has carried out its own emissions analysis and concludes the perceived and real gap between the old and forthcoming test figures is bigger than first thought.
Only about 20% of new cars can meet the new limits and this is putting enormous strain of manufacturers and their engineering teams. It also means it will be difficult to accurately complete Government data required for BIK and duties and there is the possibility that anyone buying a car will face an unexpected tax demand in several months if the figures are realigned again. Car makers would also face penalties for failing to meet the 118g/km fleet targets set by the EU.
There is a further risk ahead for 2020 and 2021 when the target will move to 95g/km.
The findings indicate that re-homologation to the WLTP test cycle is having a more significant impact than previously thought on NEDC correlated values obtained under WLTP, which are calculated using co2mpas. This could result in significant financial penalties for automotive manufacturers in EU member states where CO2 drives taxes.
The new figures indicate that the disparity between NEDC test data and NEDC correlated data under WLTP test cycle is higher than the 8g/km JATO monitored back in April 2018, and that the process of concluding the re-homologation of all vehicles could take longer than expected.
|Today, due to increased test numbers, JATO has a larger and more robust sample of vehicles from which to calculate the volume weighted impact on NEDC correlated CO2 values under WLTP testing. Additionally, it is possible to calculate the impact on vehicle segments too.
The findings highlight to the industry that CO2 emissions are a key influencer of EU member state taxes and EU fleet penalties, so a combination of higher readings under the WLTP test criteria, and the shift towards petrol vehicles could have a significant impact on the industry.
Today 37% of vehicles registered in EU member states are subject to a CO2 purchase tax, whilst over half of vehicles sold (52%) enforce a CO2 ownership tax – including sizable markets such as France, Germany and the UK. With the disparity between CO2 levels recorded under NEDC test conditions and NEDC correlated values calculated following WLTP test conditions and correlated using analytics, CO2 levels could be significantly higher than previously thought which could result in tax rates changing to accommodate the rising figures.
|A spokesperson for JATO said, “What our latest data shows is that the impact of re-homologation to WLTP testing could be even higher than previously thought. Following our analysis of a sample of the vehicles currently re-homologated, if this is extrapolated to the whole fleet, CO2 values could reach 130g/km in 2019, which is a significant 12g/km increase on the 118g/km currently seen in Europe and above the target set by the EU. As a result, car manufacturers could face a penalty of €95 per gram over the target per vehicles sold. This could amount to a huge financial penalty for the European car industry who registered more than 16 million vehicles in 2017.
“What is also worrying for the industry is that the publication of re-homologated models/versions is not progressing as quickly as expected. It has taken 11 months for 20% of existing model/versions in the market to be re-homologated and published, meaning the industry could face a backlog of vehicles that cannot be registered if it isn’t completed by 31 August.”