Thirty per cent of UK van fleets are expecting growth in the next three years, according to the new Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer.
This compares to 55% who believe numbers will remain stable and 13% who are predicting a decrease.
The research appears to show a slight downturn in confidence – last year, 40% of fleets expected an increase against 45% stable and a 14% decrease.
The figures have to be considered against the background of more vans entering the market, such as the Kia PV5 and new entrants from China.
John Peters, Head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said, “There’s been a 10 percentage point fall in the number of UK respondents to Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer who expect their van fleet to grow compared to last year.
“However, there’s also been almost no movement in those who say they believe there will be a contraction in fleet numbers – it’s fallen by just 1% to 13%. Instead, there has been a considerable shift to the ‘stable’ column – growing from 45% to 55%.
“To us, this is all reflective of the general economic mood among fleet operators, which we would characterise as slightly more uncertain. We are seeing very little actual pessimism among UK businesses, just maybe a little less optimism.”
John added that it should also be recognised that having almost a third (30%) of fleets expecting growth remained very much a positive.
“Van operators tend to be at the sharp end of the economy and a reliable litmus test of the general mood of the industry. As an indicator of real-world conditions, the fact that nearly one in three are expecting their fleet to expand remains good news.
“This can also be seen when comparing UK fleets to their international counterparts. Here, there is both greater expectation of growth and lower concerns about contraction than in Europe and globally. Overall, there is some justification for caution but also for confidence.”
