There are currently no financial incentives for private car buyers to switch to an EV, says specialist leasing company DriveElectric.
So, unless the government changes its policy on consumer purchase incentives or reduces taxes in the run-up to a general election, or there’s a new government with a more pro-EV policy, sales of new EVs are likely to continue to be mainly to businesses and fleets.
Increasing numbers of businesses are committed to reducing their carbon emissions, and moving to electric vehicles is an effective way to help achieve corporate net zero goals. One result of this is that many new EV sales are likely to continue to be of ‘executive’ cars that appeal to businesses rather than, for example, small family cars – even though a number of new ‘affordable’ EVs are due to come to market in 2024.
Compared to the period during the COVID pandemic and post-pandemic, there is now a considerable increase in the production volumes of EVs, including an ever-widening choice of makes, models and body styles, with the notable appearance of a number of new brands from China.
However only reaching a deal at the last minute in December 2023 about UK-EU Rules of Origin, which avoids tariffs on EVs, presented a challenge for planning EV production numbers in 2024.
Combined with battery costs reducing, an overall improvement in the supply of electric cars means that prices of new EVs are forecast to reach price parity with petrol cars in the forthcoming years.
There will also be continued expansion of the public charging network in 2024, particularly rapid and ultra-rapid chargers, providing more reassurance for drivers to adopt EVs.
So against this background, what will happen to EV sales in 2024? DriveElectric sees that the combination of factors such as the ZEV Mandate and the cost savings for businesses switching to EVs will result in continued upward sales growth, with the company forecasting 380,000 registrations of battery electric cars in 2024.